A government draft forecast shows Russia has cut its 2026 oil output forecast to
a 17-year low, citing the Russia-Ukraine war. The draft also trims fuel export
forecasts for 2026–27 and will be finalized at end-September for use in the
budget. Compared with projections published in May, 2026–29 oil output forecasts
have been reduced by 16–20 mln tons. In the base case, Russia’s crude output
will fall 17.2 mln tonnes this year to 494.2 mln tonnes (9.88 mln bpd), the
lowest since 2009. Output is expected to recover to 500.0 mln tonnes next year
but remain 16 mln tonnes below the prior forecast; 2028–29 production is
projected to rise further yet stay below 2025 levels.
