Morgan Stanley: Dell is a core beneficiary of the AI infrastructure cycle;
current constraint is supply rather than demand. Q2 AI orders totaled $60.9bln
with a $95.0bln backlog. Dell’s FY2027 AI-server guide of $74bln is
conservative; Morgan Stanley forecasts ~ $96bln in FY2027 and ~$150bln in FY2028
— MS’s FY2028 estimate is ~75% above consensus. ISG operating margin widened to
15%, up 6.3 ppts YoY, driven by scale, price increases, richer configurations,
supply tightness and higher‑margin storage. Server & networking revenue rose
108% YoY; storage +26%, indicating growth is not solely reliant on AI servers.
MS sets a $499 target and keeps a Neutral rating, citing a large prior run-up in
the share price and uncertainty how long elevated margins and pull‑forward
procurement can persist. Key downside risk: demand may include channel
pre‑buying; if supply normalizes pricing power may fall — MS assumes FY2029
revenue declines 4.7% YoY in its model.