Morgan Stanley: Dell is a core beneficiary of the AI infrastructure cycle; current constraint is supply rather than demand. Q2 AI orders totaled $60.9bln with a $95.0bln backlog. Dell’s FY2027 AI-server guide of $74bln is conservative; Morgan Stanley forecasts ~ $96bln in FY2027 and ~$150bln in FY2028 — MS’s FY2028 estimate is ~75% above consensus. ISG operating margin widened to 15%, up 6.3 ppts YoY, driven by scale, price increases, richer configurations, supply tightness and higher‑margin sto

2026-09-03

Morgan Stanley: Dell is a core beneficiary of the AI infrastructure cycle; current constraint is supply rather than demand. Q2 AI orders totaled $60.9bln with a $95.0bln backlog. Dell’s FY2027 AI-server guide of $74bln is conservative; Morgan Stanley forecasts ~ $96bln in FY2027 and ~$150bln in FY2028 — MS’s FY2028 estimate is ~75% above consensus. ISG operating margin widened to 15%, up 6.3 ppts YoY, driven by scale, price increases, richer configurations, supply tightness and higher‑margin storage. Server & networking revenue rose 108% YoY; storage +26%, indicating growth is not solely reliant on AI servers. MS sets a $499 target and keeps a Neutral rating, citing a large prior run-up in the share price and uncertainty how long elevated margins and pull‑forward procurement can persist. Key downside risk: demand may include channel pre‑buying; if supply normalizes pricing power may fall — MS assumes FY2029 revenue declines 4.7% YoY in its model.