Most institutional forecasters cluster around a 4.1% US unemployment rate for August (prior 4.1%). A minority expect 4.0% (Moody's, Nomura). A separate group pegs the rate at 4.2% (Citigroup, Jefferies, ING, ABN AMRO, Standard Chartered, Banco Santander, Scotiabank, UBS). Reuters consensus: 4.1%.

Japan's finance minister Katayama said she is closely monitoring Japan's bond market with a heightened sense of urgency.

JP Morgan says Asian currencies are diverging. It expects the Bank of Japan to hike 3-4 times over the next 12 months, lifting the policy rate to around 2% and likely prioritizing exchange-rate stability; USD/JPY is expected to remain near 160. JP Morgan is cautious on the Indian rupee, citing persistent capital outflow pressure as the main drag. The Australian dollar may continue to benefit from favorable terms of trade and a sound fiscal backdrop. JP Morgan adds Asian FX is shifting from a regional-wide trend to a divergence driven by external balances, the AI investment cycle, policy credibility and capital flows.