ECB is expected to raise the policy rate 25bp to 2.50% today and signal further tightening. Rising oil on escalating US-Iran tensions ahead of the meeting has reinforced hawkish expectations. Futures now price another 25bp move in October or December. EUR/USD hit 1.1654 on Wednesday and traded around 1.1630-1.1641 on Thursday.

2026-09-10

ECB is expected to raise the policy rate 25bp to 2.50% today and signal further tightening. Rising oil on escalating US-Iran tensions ahead of the meeting has reinforced hawkish expectations. Futures now price another 25bp move in October or December. EUR/USD hit 1.1654 on Wednesday and traded around 1.1630-1.1641 on Thursday.