The U.S. Climate Prediction Center says the strong El Niño that emerged in June has a 75% probability of becoming a "historic" event, surpassing all records since 1950, and may continue to strengthen through year‑end. A stronger El Niño is more likely to produce predictable global weather impacts. The event has already worsened drought in Central America, slowed Panama Canal traffic, fuelled Indonesian wildfires and lifted palm oil prices. The center warned these disruptions are adding to inflat

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center says the strong El Niño that emerged in June has a 75% probability of becoming a "historic" event, surpassing all records since 1950, and may continue to strengthen through year‑end. A stronger El Niño is more likely to produce predictable global weather impacts. The event has already worsened drought in Central America, slowed Panama Canal traffic, fuelled Indonesian wildfires and lifted palm oil prices. The center warned these disruptions are adding to inflation and supply‑chain stress already compounded by the Iran war. El Niño has suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity to one of the lowest levels since 1941 while amplifying Pacific storms. The winter outlook flags heightened risks including California flooding, drought in parts of Australia and extreme heat in India and South Asia.