The U.S. Climate Prediction Center says the strong El Niño that emerged in June
has a 75% probability of becoming a "historic" event, surpassing all records
since 1950, and may continue to strengthen through year‑end. A stronger El Niño
is more likely to produce predictable global weather impacts. The event has
already worsened drought in Central America, slowed Panama Canal traffic,
fueled Indonesian wildfires and lifted palm oil prices. The center warned these
disruptions are adding to inflation and supply‑chain stress already compounded
by the Iran war. El Niño has suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity to one of
the lowest levels since 1941 while amplifying Pacific storms. The winter outlook
flags heightened risks including California flooding, drought in parts of
Australia and extreme heat in India and South Asia.
