After Friday’s CPI release, markets increased bets on a Fed rate rise next week. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said core CPI rose 0.3% MoM in August, above economists’ 0.2% forecast. Market pricing now assigns roughly an 85% probability of a 25bp hike at the Sep. 15-16 Fed meeting, versus about 70% before the data.

2026-09-11

After Friday’s CPI release, markets increased bets on a Fed rate rise next week. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said core CPI rose 0.3% MoM in August, above economists’ 0.2% forecast. Market pricing now assigns roughly an 85% probability of a 25bp hike at the Sep. 15-16 Fed meeting, versus about 70% before the data.