Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25bps in March 2027, adding one more expected hike to its prior forecast for a December rate increase this year.

China International Capital Co (CICC) says the Fed is more likely to pause than hike, leaving markets positioned like long-call bets on uncertain upside. Using a static model of US Treasury yields and the dollar, CICC estimates gold support around $4,200–$4,500. Unless the Fed delivers consecutive hikes, downside pressure on gold is relatively contained; meaningful upside, however, requires a broader narrative. A Fed pause could feed narratives of lost confidence and de‑dollarization, while hikes would weaken that storyline, so upside is larger under no-hike scenarios and dependent on further narrative catalysts.

Pakistan finance minister said sustained high oil prices pose a risk to the country's 4% GDP growth target.