ICAEW analyst Suren Thiru said Bank of England minutes show a growing hawkish tilt after a 6-3 vote to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%. The committee said it was balancing inflationary effects from an Iran-war energy shock against a lack of evidence that price pressures are becoming more persistent and economy-wide. Thiru said the minutes’ heightened inflation concerns substantially raise the probability of a November rate increase; ongoing US‑Iran hostilities have moved the risk from possibility to pro

ICAEW analyst Suren Thiru said Bank of England minutes show a growing hawkish tilt after a 6-3 vote to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%. The committee said it was balancing inflationary effects from an Iran-war energy shock against a lack of evidence that price pressures are becoming more persistent and economy-wide. Thiru said the minutes’ heightened inflation concerns substantially raise the probability of a November rate increase; ongoing US‑Iran hostilities have moved the risk from possibility to probability. He added that while policy could still remain unchanged this year, next month’s government budget will be a key consideration for the bank’s inflation assessment.