ICAEW analyst Suren Thiru said Bank of England minutes show a growing hawkish
tilt after a 6-3 vote to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%. The committee said it was
balancing inflationary effects from an Iran-war energy shock against a lack of
evidence that price pressures are becoming more persistent and economy-wide.
Thiru said the minutes’ heightened inflation concerns substantially raise the
probability of a November rate increase; ongoing US‑Iran hostilities have moved
the risk from possibility to probability. He added that while policy could still
remain unchanged this year, next month’s government budget will be a key
consideration for the bank’s inflation assessment.
