U.S. President Trump said he will not consider election factors on Iran.

Wall Street strategists say a popular US Treasury basis trade has dropped to its smallest scale in more than two years, reflecting fewer exploitable mispricings and reduced liquidity provision from hedge funds. The levered strategy, which arbitrages small futures–cash price gaps, has cooled as those spreads compressed, weakening an important source of Treasury demand. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup strategists say the trade is not disappearing but that momentum has waned as relative-value opportunities narrow; Citigroup’s head of US rates strategy Jason Williams said lower market dislocations and volatility have trimmed basis positions and could imply stronger-than-expected Treasury demand. Morgan Stanley estimates nominal notional of leveraged participation in Treasury basis trades fell from $1.26 trillion at the start of the year to about $900 billion.

The Guardian reports European intelligence officials assess Russia could escalate in months rather than years and may soon test NATO’s red lines. Polish Prime Minister Tusk said intelligence indicates Russia could use drones or missiles to strike NATO territory within months. Kremlin spokesman Peskov dismissed the claims as completely untrue and not Russia’s intent. French President Macron said Tusk’s warning was well-founded and convened emergency talks with party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates.