Tanker data show Russia’s four-week average crude exports rose to 3.71 mln bpd in the period to Sept. 27, the highest since early August. Concurrently, four-week average Urals and ESPO prices hit their highest levels in over three months amid Middle East tensions and Saudi flow cuts after a key pipeline attack. Higher volumes and firmer prices boost Russian energy revenue, but falling product exports are eroding that benefit: Moscow has raised its 2026 crude export forecast by about 150k bpd whi

Tanker data show Russia’s four-week average crude exports rose to 3.71 mln bpd in the period to Sept. 27, the highest since early August. Concurrently, four-week average Urals and ESPO prices hit their highest levels in over three months amid Middle East tensions and Saudi flow cuts after a key pipeline attack. Higher volumes and firmer prices boost Russian energy revenue, but falling product exports are eroding that benefit: Moscow has raised its 2026 crude export forecast by about 150k bpd while cutting refined product export guidance by roughly 500k bpd. Ukrainian drone strikes forced some refinery outages, redirecting crude to export and tightening domestic fuel supplies; the government has suspended most diesel exports, a measure expected to remain in place into October.