Tanker data show Russia’s four-week average crude exports rose to 3.71 mln bpd
in the period to Sept. 27, the highest since early August. Concurrently,
four-week average Urals and ESPO prices hit their highest levels in over three
months amid Middle East tensions and Saudi flow cuts after a key pipeline
attack. Higher volumes and firmer prices boost Russian energy revenue, but
falling product exports are eroding that benefit: Moscow has raised its 2026
crude export forecast by about 150k bpd while cutting refined product export
guidance by roughly 500k bpd. Ukrainian drone strikes forced some refinery
outages, redirecting crude to export and tightening domestic fuel supplies; the
government has suspended most diesel exports, a measure expected to remain in
place into October.
