In a Sept. 29 report, JP Morgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said Middle East
crude flows have rebounded to about 17.5 mln bpd, roughly 98% of pre-war levels,
while refined product flows (diesel, gasoline) are about 3.0 mln bpd, or 58% of
pre-war. Using a 10-day moving average through the most recent five-day window,
total oil flows stand at 89% of 2025 levels. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz
have nearly returned to late‑June highs near 13.0 mln bpd, driven mainly by
Saudi Arabia. Analysts cautioned that higher volumes reflect the industry’s
capacity to operate under persistent risk, not an improvement in security.
