In a Sept. 29 report, JP Morgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said Middle East
crude flows have rebounded to about 17.5 mln bpd, roughly 98% of pre-war levels,
while refined product flows (diesel, gasoline) are about 3.0 mln bpd, or 58% of
pre-war. Using a 10-day moving average through the most recent five-day window,
total oil flows stand at 89% of 2025 levels. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz
have nearly returned to late-June highs near 13.0 mln bpd, driven mainly by
Saudi Arabia. Analysts cautioned that higher volumes reflect the industry’s
capacity to operate under persistent risk, not an improvement in security.
