Nomura economist Jeong Woo Park said Korea’s chip-driven export surge has not translated into higher wages, consumption or services inflation. While strong exports raise upside growth risk and reinforce a hawkish Bank of Korea bias, a weakening labor market, falling real wages and soft consumption argue against meaningful spillovers to the wider economy. Park maintains a forecast for two further 25bp Bank of Korea hikes, likely in Nov 2026 and Feb 2027, taking the terminal rate to 3.50%; he said

Nomura economist Jeong Woo Park said Korea’s chip-driven export surge has not translated into higher wages, consumption or services inflation. While strong exports raise upside growth risk and reinforce a hawkish Bank of Korea bias, a weakening labor market, falling real wages and soft consumption argue against meaningful spillovers to the wider economy. Park maintains a forecast for two further 25bp Bank of Korea hikes, likely in Nov 2026 and Feb 2027, taking the terminal rate to 3.50%; he said any move beyond 3.50% would require evidence of export spillovers and sustained domestic inflationary pressure.