Nomura economist Jeong Woo Park said Korea’s chip-driven export surge has not
translated into higher wages, consumption or services inflation. While strong
exports raise upside growth risk and reinforce a hawkish Bank of Korea bias, a
weakening labor market, falling real wages and soft consumption argue against
meaningful spillovers to the wider economy. Park maintains a forecast for two
further 25bp Bank of Korea hikes, likely in Nov 2026 and Feb 2027, taking the
terminal rate to 3.50%; he said any move beyond 3.50% would require evidence of
export spillovers and sustained domestic inflationary pressure.
