On Oct. 8 President Trump said the US and Iran are engaged in productive talks and that the US will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Li Zixin, a Middle East expert at the China Institute of International Studies, said media reporting indicates US operational plans are being readied but enduring constraints — ammunition shortages and a mismatch between military means and strategic objectives — still limit US appetite to restart hostilities. Li said timing is likely to be cauti

On Oct. 8 President Trump said the US and Iran are engaged in productive talks and that the US will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Li Zixin, a Middle East expert at the China Institute of International Studies, said media reporting indicates US operational plans are being readied but enduring constraints — ammunition shortages and a mismatch between military means and strategic objectives — still limit US appetite to restart hostilities. Li said timing is likely to be cautious: a pre-election strike could create a victory narrative and aid Netanyahu ahead of Israeli parliamentary votes, but would also push up oil prices and living costs, increasing political pressure on US and Israeli governments. Large-scale pre-election strikes are judged unlikely, though localized escalation remains possible.