On Oct. 8 President Trump said the US and Iran are engaged in productive talks
and that the US will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Li
Zixin, a Middle East expert at the China Institute of International Studies,
said media reporting indicates US operational plans are being readied but
enduring constraints — ammunition shortages and a mismatch between military
means and strategic objectives — still limit US appetite to restart hostilities.
Li said timing is likely to be cautious: a pre-election strike could create a
victory narrative and aid Netanyahu ahead of Israeli parliamentary votes, but
would also push up oil prices and living costs, increasing political pressure on
US and Israeli governments. Large-scale pre-election strikes are judged
Unlikely, though localized escalation remains possible.
