Bond ETF turnover reached a record 340.2 bln yuan today, edging past the prior high of 340.1 bln yuan on Jan. 15, 2026. Top three by turnover: short-term debt ETF (511360) 69.5 bln yuan; corporate-bond ETF (511070) 20.2 bln yuan, marking a second consecutive day of record turnover; sci‑tech bond ETF (551520) 16.5 bln yuan.

IMF expects global growth to accelerate next year if emerging and advanced economies pick up. It forecasts advanced economies’ expansion to slow from 2.1% this year to 1.8% next year. The US is projected to grow 2.3% (up from 2.2% in July). France is singled out as most severely affected, with GDP forecast at 0.4% this year and 0.7% in 2027—each 0.2 percentage point below the IMF’s July projection. Germany’s 2027 growth is seen at 1.1%; the UK at 1.2% as energy prices and high interest rates weigh on consumption.

Jinlianchuang: recent oil moves were mixed—IEA accelerated strategic releases, prioritizing diesel, easing supply worries and pressuring futures, while escalating Middle East tensions, tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a US hurricane supported prices. Jinlianchuang estimates the change rate as of Oct. 12 (seventh business day) at -4.46%; reference crude basket $97.21/bl; implied domestic gasoline/diesel down 230 yuan/ton. This is the 20th adjustment cycle of 2026; the price-reset window closes at 24:00 on Oct. 15—final retail direction and size will depend on CHINA STATE PLANNER’s publication and the change rate could still move. Market outlook: intraday international crude fell as investors await US–Iran diplomatic developments; geopolitics keep prices range-bound with high headline volatility. Domestic supply: independent refiners’ run rates are expected to continue falling this week, major refiners’ runs may tick up slightly; net effect likely limited swings in refined-fuel output.