Jefferies global economist Mohit Kumar says geopolitical tensions and artificial intelligence remain the two primary drivers for financial markets. He warns the odds of a US-Iran agreement before November midterm elections have fallen — Jefferies, previously relatively optimistic, now judges even a temporary compromise unlikely. The firm flags a risk that US President Trump could order strikes after the midterms, raising the prospect of renewed escalation. Kumar says absent substantive diplomati

Jefferies global economist Mohit Kumar says geopolitical tensions and artificial intelligence remain the two primary drivers for financial markets. He warns the odds of a US-Iran agreement before November midterm elections have fallen — Jefferies, previously relatively optimistic, now judges even a temporary compromise unlikely. The firm flags a risk that US President Trump could order strikes after the midterms, raising the prospect of renewed escalation. Kumar says absent substantive diplomatic progress, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and post-midterm military-action risk are likely to remain market-moving factors.