Jefferies global economist Mohit Kumar says geopolitical tensions and artificial
intelligence remain the two primary drivers for financial markets. He warns the
odds of a US-Iran agreement before November midterm elections have fallen —
Jefferies, previously relatively optimistic, now judges even a temporary
compromise unlikely. The firm flags a risk that US President Trump could order
strikes after the midterms, raising the prospect of renewed escalation. Kumar
says absent substantive diplomatic progress, heightened geopolitical uncertainty
and post-midterm military-action risk are likely to remain market-moving
factors.
