Italian Industrial Federation expects the 2026 budget deficit to reach 2.9% of GDP, in line with the government's estimate.

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hassoun says Wednesday’s US CPI is expected to show September headline inflation accelerating to about 3.7% YoY, driven by higher energy, while core CPI is seen near 2.5% YoY. The divergence matters for the Fed, which hiked in September and now faces the task of reducing inflation without unduly slowing growth; markets price roughly an 80% chance of a Fed hold in October. A softer-than-expected core print could reinforce the pause and relieve stocks and bonds; a stronger core print could push yields higher and weigh on risk assets.

Fed's Collins said data-center construction is exerting upward pressure on inflation data.