CITIC Securities says US September CPI exceeded expectations; core month-on-month inflation remained hot and price increases were broad, leaving inflation not falling to target quickly enough. It still expects one more Fed hike this year — a pause in October followed by a 25bps increase in December. With oil prices elevated and inflation sticky, US financial conditions are unlikely to ease materially; dollar liquidity should remain tight, US Treasury yields lack clear downside, and gold sentimen

CITIC Securities says US September CPI exceeded expectations; core month-on-month inflation remained hot and price increases were broad, leaving inflation not falling to target quickly enough. It still expects one more Fed hike this year — a pause in October followed by a 25bps increase in December. With oil prices elevated and inflation sticky, US financial conditions are unlikely to ease materially; dollar liquidity should remain tight, US Treasury yields lack clear downside, and gold sentiment remains fragile. Fundamental resilience matters more than liquidity-driven odds.