CITIC Securities says US September CPI exceeded expectations; core
month-on-month inflation remained hot and price increases were broad, leaving
inflation not falling to target quickly enough. It still expects one more Fed
hike this year — a pause in October followed by a 25bps increase in December.
With oil prices elevated and sticky inflation, US financial conditions are
unlikely to ease materially; dollar liquidity should remain tight, US Treasury
yields lack clear downside, and gold sentiment remains fragile. Fundamental
resilience matters more than liquidity-driven odds.
