CITIC Securities chief economist Ming Ming said global growth shows pronounced K-shaped divergence and China is experiencing an uneven, volatile recovery. He forecasts China GDP growth around 4.5% in 2027. Consumption should warm modestly, with retail sales shifting toward smart products; he sees 2027 total retail sales growth near 1%. Macro policy will be more proactive: fiscal policy is expected to expand modestly with the deficit ratio to remain about 4.0%. On monetary policy he said a rate c

CITIC Securities chief economist Ming Ming said global growth shows pronounced K-shaped divergence and China is experiencing an uneven, volatile recovery. He forecasts China GDP growth around 4.5% in 2027. Consumption should warm modestly, with retail sales shifting toward smart products; he sees 2027 total retail sales growth near 1%. Macro policy will be more proactive: fiscal policy is expected to expand modestly with the deficit ratio to remain about 4.0%. On monetary policy he said a rate cut may occur in H2 next year. He expects the renminbi to appreciate modestly to roughly 6.4–6.5 in 2027 and that RMB internationalization could accelerate over the 15th Five-Year Plan period.