CITIC Securities chief economist Ming Ming said global growth shows pronounced
K-shaped divergence and China are experiencing an uneven, volatile recovery. He
forecasts China GDP growth around 4.5% in 2027. Consumption should warm
modestly, with retail sales shifting toward smart products; he sees 2027 total
retail sales growth near 1%. Macro policy will be more proactive: fiscal policy
is expected to expand modestly with the deficit ratio to remain about 4.0%. On
monetary policy he said a rate cut may occur in H2 next year. He expects the
renminbi to appreciate modestly to roughly 6.4–6.5 in 2027 and that RMB
internationalization could accelerate over the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
