CITIC Securities says US removal of the small‑parcel duty exemption is now settled and the EU will abolish the €150 small‑parcel exemption from July 2026, assigning non‑EU platforms importer compliance responsibility. The policy squeeze is accelerating a shift from small‑parcel direct mail toward semi‑managed/POP and overseas‑warehouse fulfillment, raising entry barriers and likely concentrating volume with leading players while causing short‑term compliance disruption. Euromonitor projects glob

CITIC Securities says US removal of the small‑parcel duty exemption is now settled and the EU will abolish the €150 small‑parcel exemption from July 2026, assigning non‑EU platforms importer compliance responsibility. The policy squeeze is accelerating a shift from small‑parcel direct mail toward semi‑managed/POP and overseas‑warehouse fulfillment, raising entry barriers and likely concentrating volume with leading players while causing short‑term compliance disruption. Euromonitor projects global retail e‑commerce at $4.66 tln in 2025 (+10.4% YoY); major destinations (US, EU) to grow mid‑to‑high single digits, emerging markets faster, with e‑commerce expansion outpacing total retail. CITIC expects platform fulfillment to stabilise into 2027 and recovery off a 2026 low base; recommends monitoring the policy‑driven low‑valuation allocation window for sector exposure.