CITIC Securities says US removal of the small‑parcel duty exemption is now
settled and the EU will abolish the €150 small‑parcel exemption from July 2026,
assigning non‑EU platforms importer compliance responsibility. The policy
squeeze is accelerating a shift from small‑parcel direct mail toward
semi‑managed/POP and overseas‑warehouse fulfillment, raising entry barriers and
likely concentrating volume with leading players while causing short‑term
compliance disruption. Euromonitor projects global retail e-commerce at $4.66
tln in 2025 (+10.4% YoY); major destinations (US, EU) to grow mid‑to‑high single
digits, emerging markets faster, with e-commerce expansion outpacing total
retail. CITIC expects platform fulfillment to stabilize into 2027 and recovery
off a 2026 low base; recommends monitoring the policy‑driven low‑valuation
allocation window for sector exposure.
