Major Canadian and international forecasters increasingly price a near-term BOC
rate rise, but timing and follow-through are disputed. Several banks (BMO,
Scotiabank, MUFG, BMO, HSBC, Manulife, Oxford Economics and others) see the BOC
moving this month or by Dec–Jan, with a subset expecting two hikes (this month
and again in Dec or by end‑March), a path that would lift CAD and tighten
financial conditions. MUFG warns a October hike would fuel bets on another move
in December. Manulife and Oxford explicitly forecast hikes this month and in
December; KPMG says it would not support an October hike but would not call it a
policy error if taken. Citigroup, Standard Chartered and TD Securities see
limited case for an immediate move given soft recent inflation and demand; TD
and others judge current market pricing too aggressive. Reuters poll: of 34
economists 19 expect a hike to 2.50% this month; in a separate sample 16 of 29
expect two overnight‑rate increases by end‑March. Wall Street Journal polling
also shows a majority expecting the BOC to raise rates for the first time in
over three years, with most anticipating at least one additional hike
thereafter.
