Shenwan Hongyuan macro says public reports show recent US‑Iran talks aim for a 60‑day memorandum of understanding (MOU), with a tougher second negotiation phase to follow. Near‑term discussions appear focused on extending a ceasefire and restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to quickly reduce global energy tail risk; nuclear issues are expected to be handled in phase two. An MOU, even if agreed, would not resolve all disputes at once. The text may be near “technical completion,” but sh

Bank of China Securities said markets remained volatile at elevated levels this week. Structurally, previously strong technology sectors faced profit-taking as capital rebalanced from crowded high-fliers into lower-valued, higher-certainty sectors. Drivers: oil prices remain elevated; expectations of tighter offshore liquidity have strengthened recently; Kevin Warsh formally assumed the Fed chair and market odds of a hawkish U.S. policy path have risen. Market pricing for a Fed rate increase in 2026 has notably increased. The combination of high oil and higher rates has materially compressed the space for global liquidity easing. On the sector side, anticipated summer peak power demand supports utilities and coal supply tightness is driving prices higher; amid greater market volatility and muted fundamentals, investors are placing higher weight on dividend yields and lower-risk valuation cushions.

科創50指數跌幅擴大至2%，現報1715.63點。