Shenwan Hongyuan macro says public reports show recent US‑Iran talks aim for a
60‑day memorandum of understanding (MOU), with a tougher second negotiation
phase to follow. Near‑term discussions appear focused on extending a ceasefire
and restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to quickly reduce global
energy tail risk; nuclear issues are expected to be handled in phase two. An
MOU, even if agreed, would not resolve all disputes at once. The text may be
near “technical completion,” but short‑term reversals remain possible. Signing
does not equal operational reopening: MOUs are typically non‑binding and there
is a material gap between reaching a text and implementation. Even a temporary
reopening of the strait could be reversed if phase‑two talks stall.
