集運指數（歐線）主力合約日內漲幅擴大至13.00%，現報3945.0點。

Shenwan Hongyuan macro says public reports show recent US‑Iran talks aim for a 60‑day memorandum of understanding (MOU), with a tougher second negotiation phase to follow. Near‑term discussions appear focused on extending a ceasefire and restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to quickly reduce global energy tail risk; nuclear issues are expected to be handled in phase two. An MOU, even if agreed, would not resolve all disputes at once. The text may be near “technical completion,” but short‑term reversals remain possible. Signing does not equal operational reopening: MOUs are typically non‑binding and there is a material gap between reaching a text and implementation. Even a temporary reopening of the strait could be reversed if phase‑two talks stall.

焦煤主力合約日內大漲6.00%，現報1362.50元/噸。