Fitch says the US‑Iran war‑driven oil shock has weakened global growth
prospects, cutting its 2026 global growth forecast by 0.2ppt to 2.4%. Higher
inflation is squeezing real wages, curbing consumption and raising corporate
input costs, prompting broad downward revisions to growth.
Stronger‑than‑expected AI‑related IT investment is offsetting some weakness,
supporting world trade and Asian exports. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed
for 14 weeks; Fitch assumes reopening in July. Fitch raised its 2026 average
Brent forecast to $87/bbl from $70/bbl in March. The agency views the oil shock
as a material headwind but not as severe as 1970s oil crises. Fitch expects the
Fed and Bank of England to hold rates this year and resume cuts in 2027; it
forecasts a 25bp ECB hike in June, with policy reversal next year.
