Huatai Securities says May U.S. nonfarm payrolls +172k vs Bloomberg consensus +85k; prior two months revised up by +93k. Unemployment 4.3% and labor‑force participation 61.8%, in line with consensus. Average hourly earnings +0.3% MoM (up 0.1ppt) and +3.4% YoY (down 0.2ppt); average weekly hours 34.3. May payrolls materially exceed the 0–50k equilibrium range and unemployment remains relatively low, prompting a marked rise in market pricing for Fed hikes this year. Huatai maintains its view that

Huatai Securities says May U.S. nonfarm payrolls +172k vs Bloomberg consensus +85k; prior two months revised up by +93k. Unemployment 4.3% and labor‑force participation 61.8%, in line with consensus. Average hourly earnings +0.3% MoM (up 0.1ppt) and +3.4% YoY (down 0.2ppt); average weekly hours 34.3. May payrolls materially exceed the 0–50k equilibrium range and unemployment remains relatively low, prompting a marked rise in market pricing for Fed hikes this year. Huatai maintains its view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in H2, but may need to tighten next year.