Huatai Securities says May U.S. nonfarm payrolls +172k vs Bloomberg consensus
+85k; prior two months revised up by +93k. Unemployment 4.3% and labor‑force
participation 61.8%, in line with consensus. Average hourly earnings +0.3% MoM
(up 0.1ppt) and +3.4% YoY (down 0.2ppt); average weekly hours 34.3. May payrolls
materially exceeds the 0–50k equilibrium range and unemployment remains
relatively low, prompting a marked rise in market pricing for Fed hikes this
year. Huatai maintains its view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in H2,
but may need to tighten next year.
