Markets widely expect the ECB to raise rates by 25bps tonight. Attention will focus on the ECB’s updated macro projections, which BNP Paribas Europe CIO Alessandro Tentori expects to be revised. In March the ECB pencilled in 2026 GDP growth of 0.9% and an inf forecast of 2.6%; market consensus now sits around 2.9% for inf. BNP Paribas’ baseline remains two further 25bp hikes in June and September, then rates unchanged through end‑2027. The ECB is expected to stay data‑dependent and increasingly

Markets widely expect the ECB to raise rates by 25bps tonight. Attention will focus on the ECB’s updated macro projections, which BNP Paribas Europe CIO Alessandro Tentori expects to be revised. In March the ECB pencilled in 2026 GDP growth of 0.9% and an inf forecast of 2.6%; market consensus now sits around 2.9% for inf. BNP Paribas’ baseline remains two further 25bp hikes in June and September, then rates unchanged through end‑2027. The ECB is expected to stay data‑dependent and increasingly monitor wages, core inf and second‑round price effects.