Markets widely expect the ECB to raise rates by 25bps tonight. Attention will
focus on the ECB’s updated macro projections, which BNP Paribas Europe CIO
Alessandro Tentori expects to be revised. In March the ECB pencilled in 2026 GDP
growth of 0.9% and an inf forecast of 2.6%; market consensus now sits around
2.9% for inf. BNP Paribas’ baseline remains two further 25bp hikes in June and
September, then rates unchanged through end‑2027. The ECB is expected to stay
data‑dependent and increasingly monitor wages, core inf and second‑round price
effects.
