Forex strategist Karamanis says euro options show traders expect the ECB to pass today calmly because rate hikes are already fully priced; the meeting is largely viewed as procedural. If officials signal consecutive hikes in July rather than a pause until September (swap market currently prices that probability below 50%), the euro could move. A larger FX shake-up would require material repricing of three hikes by year-end. Karamanis expects Lagarde to mainly reiterate data-dependence and provid

Forex strategist Karamanis says euro options show traders expect the ECB to pass today calmly because rate hikes are already fully priced; the meeting is largely viewed as procedural. If officials signal consecutive hikes in July rather than a pause until September (swap market currently prices that probability below 50%), the euro could move. A larger FX shake-up would require material repricing of three hikes by year-end. Karamanis expects Lagarde to mainly reiterate data-dependence and provide little explicit forward guidance.