Forex strategist Karamanis says euro options show traders expect the ECB to pass
today calmly because rate hikes are already fully priced; the meeting is largely
viewed as procedural. If officials signal hikes consecutively in July rather than
a pause until September (swap market current prices that probability below
50%), the euro could move. A larger FX shake-up would require material repricing
of three hikes by year-end. Karamanis expects Lagarde to mainly reiterate
data-dependence and provide little explicit forward guidance.
