JP Morgan reiterated its $4,000/t aluminium price target and expects an average of $3,750/t in H2. The bank said the Middle East conflict destroyed the Gulf’s two largest smelters—about 8% of global output—and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz; while reopening could exert near-term downward pressure, Middle East output may take multiple quarters to normalise, keeping a shortage in place. JP Morgan expects prices to roll over from next year and fall below $3,000/t in H2 2027. LME three-mont

JP Morgan reiterated its $4,000/t aluminium price target and expects an average of $3,750/t in H2. The bank said the Middle East conflict destroyed the Gulf’s two largest smelters—about 8% of global output—and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz; while reopening could exert near-term downward pressure, Middle East output may take multiple quarters to normalise, keeping a shortage in place. JP Morgan expects prices to roll over from next year and fall below $3,000/t in H2 2027. LME three-month aluminium was up 0.3% intraday at $3,512/t.