JP Morgan reiterated its $4,000/t aluminum price target and expects an average
of $3,750/t in H2. The bank said the Middle East conflict destroyed the Gulf’s
two largest smelters—about 8% of global output—and effectively closed the Strait
of Hormuz; while reopening could exert near-term downward pressure, Middle East
output may take multiple quarters to normalize, keeping a shortage in place. JP
Morgan expects prices to roll over from next year and fall below $3,000/t in H2
2027. LME three-month aluminum was up 0.3% intraday at $3,512/t.
