REUTERS SURVEY: Bank Indonesia's 7-day reverse repo rate is forecast at 5.75% at end-2026, versus a prior forecast of 5.50%.

CITIC Securities says global economic resilience is being tested by the Middle East conflict; H2 will be dominated by coexisting supply shocks, policy constraints and investment support, with the persistence of oil-price shocks the primary variable for the global macro path. For China, policymakers are likely to shift H2 focus toward structural reform—curbing domestic over-competition (anti-involution) and enforcing carbon assessments to optimize supply, while using fiscal and tax reform to steer demand. In China’s A-share market, AI plus energy/chemicals form a new barbell. Investment stance: keep a global lens on China and adopt K-shaped positioning rather than simple bull/bear views; move from “building AI” to “adapting to AI” in technology exposure. The long-term investment case remains a re-rating of China’s advantaged manufacturing pricing power; priority sectors are new energy, chemicals, nonferrous metals and power equipment. On the offensive side, monitor domestic AI progress and overweight the domestic compute chain and cloud platforms. Continue selective overweight of low-valuation names, notably brokers and insurers.

摩根大通全球固收負責人米歇爾：應當詢問美聯儲主席沃什，通脹回落是否是暫時的。