瑞典央行：中東戰爭導致的供應中斷加劇了通脹壓力。供應中斷已持續近四個月，持續時間越長，通脹風險越大。

CITIC Securities says global economic resilience is being tested by the Middle East conflict; H2 will be dominated by coexisting supply shocks, policy constraints and investment support, with the persistence of oil-price shocks the primary variable for the global macro path. For China, policymakers are likely to shift H2 focus toward structural reform—curbing domestic over-competition (anti-involution) and enforcing carbon assessments to optimize supply, while using fiscal and tax reform to steer demand. In China’s A-share market, AI plus energy/chemicals form a new barbell. Investment stance: keep a global lens on China and adopt K-shaped positioning rather than simple bull/bear views; move from “building AI” to “adapting to AI” in technology exposure. The long-term investment case remains a re-rating of China’s advantaged manufacturing pricing power; priority sectors are new energy, chemicals, nonferrous metals and power equipment. On the offensive side, monitor domestic AI progress and overweight the domestic compute chain and cloud platforms. Continue selective overweight of low-valuation names, notably brokers and insurers.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said artificial intelligence presents both opportunities and risks.