RBC analysts Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen say Canadian trade flows remain influenced by uncertainty around US trade policy. In May, goods exports rose 0.9% MoM and imports fell 0.2% MoM, pushing the goods trade surplus to roughly C$4.2bn from a revised C$3.4bn. Export volumes excluding price effects declined 0.5% in May, though RBC still sees sizable Q2 growth; import volumes edged down, largely reflecting a pullback in gold imports. Despite improving international conditions, they expect the drag

RBC analysts Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen say Canadian trade flows remain influenced by uncertainty around US trade policy. In May, goods exports rose 0.9% MoM and imports fell 0.2% MoM, pushing the goods trade surplus to roughly C$4.2bn from a revised C$3.4bn. Export volumes excluding price effects declined 0.5% in May, though RBC still sees sizable Q2 growth; import volumes edged down, largely reflecting a pullback in gold imports. Despite improving international conditions, they expect the drag from trade on Canadian GDP to be smaller than in 2025.