RBC analysts Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen say Canadian trade flows remain
influenced by uncertainty around US trade policy. In May, goods exports rose
0.9% MoM and imports fell 0.2% MoM, pushing the goods trade surplus to roughly
C$4.2bn from a revised C$3.4bn. Export volumes excluding price effects declined
0.5% in May, though RBC still sees sizable Q2 growth; import volumes edged down,
largely reflecting a pullback in gold imports. Despite improving international
conditions, they expect the drag from trade on Canadian GDP to be smaller than
in 2025.
