China's June trade surplus in USD terms was $125.62 bln, versus $120.6 bln expected and $105.43 bln previously.

June CPI likely reflects a clear statistical lag: headline may drop from May’s 4.2% to roughly 3.8% mainly due to a near-term cooling in energy, not a durable easing of inflation. The Cleveland Fed model projects about 3.9% headline and core CPI around 2.9%, indicating persistent price pressure. Energy weakness could improve nominal inflation, but housing, services and wages continue to support core; the NY Fed survey shows 1- and 3-year inflation expectations rising, so the Fed will need to judge persistence even if June prints softer. Market impact hinges on interpretation—if core remains elevated or energy re-firms in July, traders will reprice second-round inflation risk; amid widening Fed internal divisions and weaker forward guidance, CPI is a live input for the interest-rate path and asset pricing.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index was last at 66,556.61 points, down 1.02%.