Andy Burnham, set to replace Starmer next Monday, will receive a Treasury economic assessment on his first day. The report projects Q4 inflation revised up to 3.2%, says gilt yields and financing costs will continue rising, and anticipates the Bank of England will raise rates at least once more before year-end. It warns that if a US–Iran ceasefire is not quickly restored, international oil could reach $150/bbl, lifting energy, food and jet-fuel prices, pushing up living costs and increasing down

Andy Burnham, set to replace Starmer next Monday, will receive a Treasury economic assessment on his first day. The report projects Q4 inflation revised up to 3.2%, says gilt yields and financing costs will continue rising, and anticipates the Bank of England will raise rates at least once more before year-end. It warns that if a US–Iran ceasefire is not quickly restored, international oil could reach $150/bbl, lifting energy, food and jet-fuel prices, pushing up living costs and increasing downside pressure on the UK economy. Officials also cite elevated cyberattack risk from Iran and Russia and imminent policy decisions on Ukraine, Russia sanctions and Strait of Hormuz security as early challenges for the new administration.