Andy Burnham, set to replace Starmer next Monday, will receive a Treasury
economic assessment on his first day. The report projects Q4 revised inflation
up to 3.2%, says gilt yields and financing costs will continue rising, and
anticipates the Bank of England will raise rates at least once more before
year-end. It warns that if a US–Iran ceasefire is not quickly restored,
international oil could reach $150/bbl, lifting energy, food and jet-fuel
prices, pushing up living costs and increasing downside pressure on the UK
economy. Officials also cite elevated cyberattack risk from Iran and Russia and
imminent policy decisions on Ukraine, Russia sanctions and Strait of Hormuz
security as early challenges for the new administration.
